Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Do you know this baby? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). (Sorry, not sorry.) Thank you for supporting our journalism. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Jeff. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. 12. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. It gets a lot more interesting. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Found an error on our site? All rights reserved. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The matters that way on their minds are real. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Nobody forgot about politics.". The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Read about our approach to external linking. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! 03:30. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? In communities . Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. 2023 BBC. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. "They followed through the whole four years. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. 10. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 3. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Not anymore. Seriously. 9. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Election night is going to be information overload. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Sumter County, . But it's also not unprecedented. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. (Go to the bottom of the page. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Twitter Twitter So, where are the bellwether counties? Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county.
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